Apple execs to talk China and tariffs, but will avoid discussing foldable iPhone, per traders on Kalshi

Apple is set to report earnings after the bell on Thursday, just over a week since the company announced that longtime CEO Tim Cook will be leaving in September and replaced by senior vice president of hardware engineering John Ternus. 

Traders think it’s almost certain that the company will mention on its earnings call China and tariffs, placing odds at 98% and 96%, respectively. But there are other topics that traders are more divided on. 

Google’s artificial intelligence model Gemini has a 27% chance to get mentioned. Apple has a deal with Google to implement the model into its Apple Intelligence features, but Apple is also widely viewed by Wall Street as the biggest tech laggard on AI development.

Meanwhile, traders mostly think the company won’t chat about glasses, assigning only a 24% chance. Apple has reportedly been working on designing an AI-supported smart glasses product as a new wearable technology for quite some time, but has yet to make a formal announcement of the development.

Traders also give just a 9% chance the company says fold, folding or foldable. That’s after a report this month that the timeline for the development Apple’s proposed foldable iPhone is delayed. However, a Bloomberg report indicates a planned fall 2026 launch is still on schedule.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.