Traders are skeptical of Iran timeline for Strait of Hormuz reopening

They place just a 38% chance that traffic flows through the strait will return to normal by July 1. The contract defines normal flows as the seven-day moving average of transit through the strait crossing 60 based on data from IMF PortWatch.

That level, though, is higher than the roughly 32% chance that traders gave of that happening before the new reports Wednesday.

Traders are more confident that flows will return to normal by Aug. 1. They put 60% odds on it happening, higher than the 50-50 chance they had before the reports.

However, all of these odds are lower than chances traders had over the weekend, when there appeared to be a potential imminent announcement of a deal between the two countries. Odds that traffic in the strait returned to normal by July were as high as 50% on Sunday.

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