Taiwan was front and center during Trump’s China trip — but absent from Xi’s meeting with Putin

Xi’s meeting with President Donald Trump was replete with pomp and pageantry, reflecting Beijing eagerness to project China’s power, strength and history during the White House leader’s state visit. but the Chinese premier’s meeting with his Russian counterpart and “friend” Vladimir Putin has been a much more relaxed affair, with the two leaders reaffirming already close strategic and geopolitical ties.

One major notable difference between the two encounters, however, was Taiwan, which was a cornerstone of one meeting and completely absent from the other.

The contested status of the island — which China claims as its own — was a central and awkward issue in Xi’s meeting with Trump, but the thorny matter was glossed over in talks with Putin.

“Xi does not want to have the Taiwan issue, and China’s claims that Taiwan is rightfully its territory, to be conflated with Russia’s irredentism and claims, and war, on Ukrainian territory,” Max Hess, founder of political risk consultancy Enmetena Advisory, told CNBC Wednesday.

“That would make China seem far more belligerent,” Hess said, adding that while “China has recognized Ukraine and its borders many times in the past, it has never recognized Taiwan’s independence.”

Xi said that any mishandling of the Taiwan “question,” which he described as “the most important issue in China-U.S. relations,” would put the two superpowers’ relationship in “great jeopardy.”

He went further, warning Trump that U.S. interference in Taiwan could be a flashpoint for direct “clashes and even conflicts” between the two countries. He also appeared to tie the economic stability of the two nations to the matter.

Beijing considers the democratically self-ruled island of Taiwan part of its territory and central to its national sovereignty. The island’s ruling party rejects that claim.

The U.S. acknowledges China’s view, but maintains strong relationships with Taipei and previously committed to supplying Taiwan with the means to defend itself.

Analysts suggest that Xi’s comments were largely designed to convince the Trump administration to delay or cancel a pending U.S. arms sale package to Taiwan.

“Chinese leaders view these arms sales as a major irritant. If Taiwan did not receive U.S. defense support, then it would be much easier for China to take the island by force. Hence Xi’s attempt to lobby Trump for inaction on the pending $14 billion package,” Melanie Hart, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, said in online analysis.

Whether China’s warnings hit a nerve with the White House is unclear; Trump said last week that he had refused to directly answer Xi when asked if the U.S. would defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack.

“Regular mutual visits and Russia-China top-level talks are an important and integral part of our joint efforts to promote the entire range of relations between our two countries and unlock their truly limitless potential,” he said, in comments reported by TASS news agency.

That Russia and China are seen as ideologically aligned on many geopolitical issues, with each sharing a traditional antipathy and distrust towards the West, and Washington.

Both countries have been supportive of each other’s foreign policies, particularly when it comes to territorial matters; China essentially acquiesced to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, refusing to condemn the conflict and tolerating the global uncertainty and supply disruptions the war caused. Both have also provided support to Iran in the conflict between the U.S. and Islamic Republic.

In a joint statement released by Xi and Putin on Wednesday, the leaders championed their “deepening political mutual trust and strategic cooperation” in multiple areas, ranging from energy and the economy to trade.

The heads of state “exchanged views on major international and regional issues, including the situation in the Middle East,” the statement, published by Xinhua news agency, said. They also issued a joint statement on advocating for a “multipolar world and a new type of international relations.”

There was no mention of Taiwan, however.

“That’s not going to happen,” Hess said, “because China has all the power in the relationship.”

“Xi has absolutely no interest in doing so, and would almost certainly be very furious if it was mentioned by Putin or other Russian officials in that context,” Hess said.

Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at risk consultancy Teneo, also told CNBC Wednesday he was not surprised that Taiwan was not on the agenda, at least publicly, between Xi and Putin.

“The Xi-Putin summit focused mostly on bilateral relations. With regards to international affairs, there are multiple more pressing issues, including wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Moreover, there is no disagreement on Taiwan as Moscow has been consistently adhering to the ‘one China’ policy” which acknowledges China’s claims to Taiwan, he noted.