Shipping giant boss warns Iran war will have bigger impact in coming months as customers face price hikes

Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” after Maersk posted its first-quarter earnings, Clerc said the group is facing intense cost pressures that would have to be passed on to customers.

“We are highly energy intensive industry, and that has created a whole new set of circumstances that we now have to deal with,” he said. “That will have an important impact on the second and third quarter,”

Oil costs surged as the war in the Middle East intensified, with ongoing uncertainty around the closure of the Strait of Hormuz keeping prices elevated. The spike in oil prices has also fueled concerns that inflation will be pushed higher in many economies.

On Thursday, global benchmark Brent crude futures were down by 2.2% to $93.01 a barrel, amid hopes that Washington and Tehran were close to agreeing on a peace deal.

“What this this energy shock is going to mean is about $500 million of extra costs per month for as long as the oil remains around in the in the $100 per barrel neighborhood, that is significant,” Clerc told CNBC. “And there is so much we can do on reducing costs, but there is a lot we need to do on passing on these costs to customers, because it’s such a massive cost increase that we can’t shoulder it.”

He added that the conflict was raising questions about how long the shipping industry — and consumption — could remain resilient.

“As some of these costs make their way all the way up to the end consumer, will we see demand destruction at the consumer level? And will that then reverberate throughout the supply chain with softer demand in the second part of the year?” he questioned. “That is certainly something that we’re looking out for very, very closely, because it would suddenly change the equation on how this crisis is going to impact the global supply chain and our industry in particular.”

It marked a 35% decline from the same period a year earlier, but fell in line with a consensus estimate compiled by LSEG.

Revenue fell 2.6% year-on-year to $13 billion, beating expectations of $12.5 billion. The downturn was driven by pressure on its Ocean division, Maersk said, due to lower freight rates and higher costs from increased volumes.

Shares of Maersk were last seen trading 2.9% lower.

Around a week into the Iran war, Maersk suspended two key shipping routes linking the Middle East to Asia and Europe. It said the decision had been made to protect its personnel and vessels.

The shipping giant kept its full-year outlook unchanged, saying it still anticipated underlying EBITDA growth in the range of 4.5% to 7% in 2026. It said its outlook reflects industry overcapacity from new vessel deliveries, as well as different scenarios on the timing of the reopening of the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz this year.

However, Maersk reiterated the impact of the Iran war on its operations and the global economy, and called for efforts to strengthen supply chains.

“Geopolitics is the dominant force shaping the macroeconomic outlook, as well as the trade and logistics environment,” the company said in its earnings presentation, adding that the Iran war had introduced an “additional layer of uncertainty.”

Since the conflict began on Feb. 28, the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that’s critical to commercial shipping — has effectively been closed.

“Currently, fragile ceasefires are in place in both Iran and Lebanon, negotiations proceed slowly, and traffic at the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near-standstill. The conflict has already weighed on sentiment. Consumer confidence deteriorated,” Maersk said on Thursday.

The company said that if oil prices remain in the $90- to $100-per-barrel range through 2026 and the conflict is resolved soon, global container demand is still expected to grow between 2% and 4%.

But, it added, the balance of risks “is on the downside and more adverse outcomes cannot be ruled out.”

“Energy and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly reshaping global supply chains,” the shipping giant added in its report. “After the recent tariffs on U.S. imports, the conflict represents another wake-up call to deploy new tools to make supply chains more resilient and develop new strategies to mitigate future disruptions.”