U.S. oil prices will exceed Iran wartime high to above $125 as conflict drags on, Kalshi traders say

Users on the prediction markets platform think that there’s a more than 50% chance that prices will reach nearly $127 per barrel this year, far higher than the current closing high of nearly $113 per barrel on April 7. 

Traders also estimate there’s a 63% chance that prices will cross $120 per barrel. 

While WTI prices remain off their highs from before the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire to the war in the Middle East, they’re considerably higher than their lows of $82.59 on April 17.

Some of the post-ceasefire decline in WTI oil prices has been reversed as there’s no clear path to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz nor to the U.S. ending its naval blockade of the passageway. 

While traders think the highs in oil prices haven’t been hit this year, the range they think prices will trade has shrunk. In early April, before the ceasefire, traders thought there was a more than 50% chance prices traded above $150 per barrel. Traders now place just a 26% chance of that happening.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.

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