Both Citi and JPMorgan cut their ratings and price targets on Mattel following its fourth-quarter earnings release. In its Q4 report, the toy manufacturer missed on both the top and bottom lines, delivering adjusted earnings of 39 cents per share on revenue of $1.77 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected earnings of 54 cents and $1.84 billion in revenue. Mattel’s guidance also came well below Street estimates. The firm sees adjusted earnings for the year coming in between $1.18 and $1.30, while the consensus estimate from FactSet was $1.77. Shares of Mattel plunged 28% in Wednesday’s premarket session. Shares are now down 4% over the past 12 months but still trading 6% higher in 2026. MAT 5D mountain MAT 5D chart Citi downgraded the stock to a neutral rating from buy, also lowering its price target to $16 from $25. This revised forecast implies potential downside of 24%. Citi analyst James Hardiman said that while some investors might view this pullback as a buy low opportunity, he is taking a step back. “The Mattel thesis has changed suddenly and substantially, with work to be done by management to tighten up the narrative and deliver the opportunity,” he wrote. This earnings release looks especially damaging when considering rival toy manufacturer Hasbro’s stellar quarter. “Longer-term, while the 2026 investments should pay dividends down the line, the need for a bridge/investment year to maintain some modicum of growth would reignite investor concerns around traditional toy demand,” Hardiman said. “Particularly on the heels of a massive beat/raise by Hasbro earlier in the day, the durability of MAT’s portfolio is likely to be debated in an industry that is increasingly a story of haves and have nots.” JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers downgraded the stock to an underweight rating from neutral. Horvers’ new price target of $14, lowered from $23, implies a 34% downside. As a reason for the downgrade, Horvers pointed to Mattel’s disappointing guidance, combined with limited visibility to material trend improvement in key brands such as Barbie and Fisher Price. “MAT’s results are more highly dependent on the core toy business, and especially Barbie ($1.2B in gross billings in 2025), which has suffered a hangover following a decade of strong innovation and the epic movie in 2023,” he wrote. “It’s hard for MAT to be successful broadly when this brand suffers (down 11% in 2025 on top of a 12% decline in 2024), with the company expecting a smaller decline in 2026 before returning to growth in 2027.”
