First ships pass Strait of Hormuz since Trump-Iran ceasefire, but traffic remains low amid confusion

But more than 12 hours into the ceasefire, overall traffic through the vital waterway has not picked up beyond the slow trickle it has experienced throughout the war, experts and industry professionals say.

Uncertainty and confusion in the maritime industry remain high, despite Iran’s assurance that vessels will be able to safely navigate the strait during the ceasefire.

That confusion stems in part from Tehran’s caveat that passage through the strait is only possible “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration to technical limitations.”

The potential for Iran to heavily toll ships is a key sticking point, a marine insurance executive, who did not want to be named on the record, told CNBC.

Iran is planning to demand that shipping firms pay tolls in cryptocurrency to let their oil tankers through the strait, the Financial Times reported Wednesday morning.

Iran will also be inspecting each ship for weapons, the FT reported, citing a spokesperson for Iran’s oil, gas and petrochemical products exporters’ union.

U.S. officials, boasting that the ceasefire agreement represents total victory over Iran, insisted Wednesday morning that the path for ships is clear.

“The strait is open,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a press briefing. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine, asked at the same briefing if the strait is open right now, said, “I believe so, based on the diplomatic negotiation.”

President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said in a Truth Social post overnight that the U.S. “will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz.”

“There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process,” he wrote. “We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just ‘hangin’ around’ in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will.”

The post represented a stunning turnaround from Trump, who days earlier threatened to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure unless its regime agreed to “Open the Fuckin’ Strait.” On Tuesday morning, Trump threatened that a “whole civilization will die” by Tuesday night if the U.S. and Iran could not clinch a deal that involved reopening the strait.

Less than two hours before his deadline, Trump announced that he would suspend the planned attacks for two weeks, “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.”

MarineTraffic said in an X post Wednesday morning that two ships — the Greek-owned NJ Earth and the Liberia-flagged Daytona Beach — transited the strait overnight. Both are described as bulk carriers, which carry dry cargo, not tankers, which ship oil.

Those vessel movements don’t necessarily represent a post-ceasefire breakthrough.

Between 100 and 120 commercial vessels, mostly oil tankers, passed through the strait each day before the war, according to data from Kpler. Traffic plunged to just a handful of ships per day as Iran attacked commercial vessels, effectively closing the main artery for 20% of the world’s oil supply.

Ship transits through the strait started picking up prior to the ceasefire. Some 72 vessels made the trip during the week of March 30 through April 5, according to data from Lloyd’s List. It was the busiest week since the war broke out on Feb. 28, though traffic was still 90% below normal volumes, the data showed.

About 80% of those ships were connected to Iran and 13% were owned by China, according to Lloyd’s List.

MarineTraffic’s post notes that hundreds of vessels remain in the region, effectively stranded since the war began.

Traffic has not picked up since the ceasefire was announced, said Matt Smith, an oil analyst at Kpler.

“We may just see 10-15 [vessels] given that Iran is still vetting who goes through: that would be a similar pace to that seen in recent days,” Smith told CNBC.

Shipping giant Maersk in a statement celebrated the ceasefire and the potential for reopening the strait, but noted, “Information and details available remain very limited and we are working with urgency to obtain further clarity.”

“The ceasefire may create transit opportunities, but it does not yet provide full maritime certainty and we need to understand all potential conditions attached,” the company’s statement said.

“At this point, we take a cautious approach, and we are not making any changes to specific services,” it added.