Here’s the inflation breakdown for March 2026 — in one chart

The consumer price index, a key inflation measure, rose 3.3% in March from a year earlier, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. That’s up from 2.4% in February.

The March data release represents the first CPI report since the Iran war started on Feb. 28, and illustrates the financial fallout for consumers from the first month of fighting in the Middle East.

While the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire late Tuesday, economists said the inflationary effects of the war will likely take several weeks or months to unwind — and that a prolonged conflict risks raising consumer prices more broadly, to areas like food, airfare and manufactured goods.

“Inflation is a problem and it’s only going to get worse,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “Clearly, the war in Iran is doing significant damage.”

“Basically, we’re on hold now, just to see what happens with the energy price shock,” Ryan said. “If it’s long-lasting, we become more concerned about leakage” into other areas of consumers’ wallets, he said.

The Iran war’s inflationary bump also complicates the Federal Reserve’s job of setting interest-rate policy.

At the March meeting, officials at the central bank said they expect to cut interest rates once this year, though some said it may be necessary to raise borrowing costs if the Iran war leads to sustained higher inflation.

Fed officials also said they would need to remain “nimble” as they weighed the impact the war had on inflation, which continues to hold above the Fed’s 2% target.

“Inflation is well above anyone’s comfort level — both consumers and the Federal Reserve — and that’s not going to get any better, at least in the next few months,” Zandi said.

Iran has effectively choked off ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway used to ship about a fifth of the world’s oil supply. The blockade appears to largely still be intact even after the ceasefire, according to reports.

Oil prices — as measured by Brent crude oil, a global price benchmark — spiked to $118 per barrel by the end of March from roughly $70 per barrel before the conflict began. Prices have since declined, but remain elevated at around $96 as of Friday.

“There’s good news now, because we have a two-week ceasefire and hopefully that holds,” said Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. “Otherwise we’re looking at the largest oil supply shock in post-World War II history.”

Products refined from oil — such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel — have risen sharply, too.

Retail gasoline prices soared 18.9% over the year, according to CPI data.

Consumers paid $4.12 per gallon, on average, as of Monday, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest weekly data — up from about $2.94 before the war started.

The jump above $4 a gallon was the first time the national average price had breached that price threshold since 2022, when Russian’s invasion of Ukraine sent prices soaring, according to EIA data.

For example, airlines are raising ticket prices, increasing bag fees, adding fuel surcharges and cutting flight schedules to manage the fallout from the Iran war — all of which boost the price tag for travelers.

Companies are doing this to offset higher jet fuel prices, one of airlines’ largest operational costs.

Airfares rose 14.9% over the past 12 months, according to CPI data.

The hike is especially pronounced for international flights: For example, an average round-trip economy fare from the U.S. to Rome cost $1,165 as of March 30, up from $846 on Feb. 23, according to the most recent weekly flight data compiled by Kayak, a travel search engine. A round-trip ticket to Hong Kong rose to $1,403 from $1,042 over the same time period.

If jet fuel prices stay near their current levels for a full year, airlines would have to increase ticket prices about $50 for each one-way fare, or about 17%, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a report on Tuesday.

Food prices are another area that may see upward pressure due to rising oil prices, economists said.

For example, an increase in diesel prices impacts the transportation costs associated with trucking food to grocery stores, they said. Additionally, fertilizer is another key export through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to raise prices for farmers and consumers.

Food prices increased 2.7% over the last year, according to CPI data. Some categories like beef and coffee have seen prices surge even more due to idiosyncratic issues that have reduced supply.

Americans may also see costs increase for purchases through e-commerce sites. Amazon will start levying a 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge for third-party sellers in the U.S. and Canada on April 17. Other shipping carriers like United Parcel Service and FedEx have also imposed higher fuel surcharges since the start of the Iran war.

Some of the inflationary effects of energy prices may take months to feed through supply chains and flow through to consumers’ wallets, said Ryan, of Capital Economics. The impact “could be very broad,” he said.